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UFC 331 Predictions & Best Bets: Joshua Van, Mauricio Ruffy Upset Value and Doo Ho Choi by KO

UFC 331 Predictions & Best Bets: Joshua Van, Mauricio Ruffy Upset Value and Doo Ho Choi by KO

UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 has three fights that particularly interest us from a betting perspective, but for three very different reasons.

The main event gives us a young champion who looked outstanding in his first proper title defense against one of the greatest flyweights ever. The co-main event offers a dangerous striker at a price that, in our view, gives him more respect than the matchup odds initially suggested. Then there is Doo Ho Choi, where we would rather bet on the thing he actually does exceptionally well than pay a short price simply for him to win.

Our UFC 331 picks are Joshua Van to beat Alexandre Pantoja at around 1.90, Mauricio Ruffy to beat Arman Tsarukyan at around 4.00, and Doo Ho Choi by KO/TKO against Patricio Pitbull at around 2.70.

Those prices are snapshots from when MMAtown prepared the picks, not promises of live odds. Markets move, and the value of a bet can change significantly with the price.

UFC 331 takes place September 19 at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, with the UFC flyweight title on the line in Van vs. Pantoja 2. The main card begins at 9 p.m. ET / 6 p.m. PT in the United States.

For a final look at the three fights before the event, watch MMAtown's UFC 331 fighter face-offs featuring Van vs. Pantoja, Tsarukyan vs. Ruffy and Pitbull vs. Choi.

UFC 331 prediction: Joshua Van to beat Alexandre Pantoja at 1.90

This is the closest thing we have to a conventional pick on the card.

Joshua Van became flyweight champion in unusual circumstances. His first fight with Alexandre Pantoja at UFC 323 ended only 26 seconds into Round 1 after Pantoja suffered a serious elbow injury while posting on the canvas.

Technically, Van won the championship that night. Practically, we learned almost nothing about how a full Joshua Van vs. Alexandre Pantoja fight would play out.

What happened next is much more important to this prediction.

Van defended the belt against Tatsuro Taira in May and looked exceptional over a long, difficult championship fight. Taira repeatedly tested his wrestling and grappling defense early, but Van kept solving problems as the fight went deeper. His get-ups improved, his takedown defense became more reliable and his striking increasingly took over.

Then he finished Taira in the fifth round, becoming the first fighter to stop the Japanese contender.

That fight is the biggest reason we're backing Van here. Taira gave him problems that required actual adjustments rather than allowing him to simply box comfortably for five rounds. Van showed that he can solve those problems without abandoning the aggressive striking game that has carried him to the title.

Van's boxing and chopping right hand are becoming serious weapons

Van does not need one spectacular technique to win fights, but the right hand has become a recurring feature of his offense.

He is excellent at finding it in exchanges rather than loading up on an obvious single power shot, and the accumulation becomes especially dangerous when opponents begin slowing under his pace.

Pantoja remains a much more dangerous opponent than the 1.90 Van price might make this section sound. Before the injury, the Brazilian had won eight consecutive fights and made four successful UFC flyweight title defenses. His pressure, durability, scrambling and submission game have broken elite opponents for years.

But this is also Pantoja's first fight since the elbow injury, and he is returning at 36 against a 24-year-old champion who just demonstrated how well he can maintain and even increase his effectiveness late in a five-round fight.

That 12-year age difference matters to us, especially at flyweight where speed, reactions and sustained pace are such important parts of the division.

Pantoja may still be capable of taking the belt back. We simply believe Van should win this matchup more often than a 1.90 price requires.

MMAtown pick: Joshua Van to win at around 1.90.

Arman Tsarukyan vs Mauricio Ruffy prediction: the 4.00 underdog is worth the risk

Let's make something clear immediately: Arman Tsarukyan is supposed to win this fight.

He is the No. 2 lightweight contender, enters UFC 331 on a five-fight winning streak and presents exactly the stylistic problem that has already caused Mauricio Ruffy trouble.

Benoît Saint Denis pressured Ruffy, repeatedly forced him into grappling exchanges and eventually submitted him with a rear-naked choke in September 2025. It remains the obvious blueprint for anyone looking at Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy.

Tsarukyan is a better and more accomplished wrestler than almost anyone Ruffy could draw at lightweight. If he consistently gets underneath Ruffy's striking range, chains takedowns together and forces prolonged grappling sequences, this can become an extremely difficult night for the Brazilian.

That's why this isn't our safe bet.

The reason we're interested is the price.

Every fight with Mauricio Ruffy starts standing

At around 4.00, Ruffy only needs to win often enough for that number to underestimate his chances. We think his path to victory is real enough to make the price interesting.

Every round begins on the feet, and very few lightweights are more dangerous in those first striking exchanges.

Ruffy has 13 knockout or TKO victories in 14 career wins. Since the Saint Denis defeat, he has responded by stopping Rafael Fiziev and Michael Chandler, two fights where his opponents were unable to turn the matchup into the type of prolonged wrestling battle that exposes his biggest weakness.

The upside of giving Ruffy space is obvious.

That knockout of Bobby Green is a good illustration of why Ruffy remains live against almost anyone. His offense can arrive from unusual angles, he carries legitimate finishing power and he doesn't need five minutes of sustained success to completely change a fight.

Social media has naturally spent fight week imagining what happens if Ruffy lands something similarly dramatic on Tsarukyan.

That post is obviously hypothetical, not evidence that Tsarukyan will suffer the same fate.

The real handicap is simpler. Tsarukyan deserves to be favored because his wrestling directly attacks the weakest area of Ruffy's game. But 4.00 asks whether Ruffy wins this matchup more often than roughly one time in four. With his speed, length, timing and one-shot finishing threat, our answer is yes.

There is also evidence that Ruffy has been actively working on the exact weakness Tsarukyan will test. After the Saint Denis loss, he spent time training alongside Alexander Volkanovski and his team, with particular attention naturally falling on defensive wrestling and getting back to his feet.

Whether those improvements survive against Tsarukyan is a much bigger question than whether they survived against Fiziev or Chandler.

That's why the stake should reflect the risk.

MMAtown pick: Mauricio Ruffy to win at around 4.00, small speculative play rather than a safe bet.

Patricio Pitbull vs Doo Ho Choi prediction: take the KO/TKO prop

Our third UFC 331 pick isn't really about deciding whether Doo Ho Choi should be favored over Patricio Pitbull.

It's about how Choi wins.

Choi enters Doo Ho Choi vs. Patricio Pitbull with 17 professional victories. Fourteen of them have come by knockout or TKO.

That's 82 percent of his career wins.

More importantly, this isn't merely an old statistic built on the early part of his career. Choi's current three-fight winning streak consists of three consecutive stoppages: Bill Algeo, Nate Landwehr and Daniel Santos.

At 35, “The Korean Superboy” is still fighting like The Korean Superboy.

That's why simply taking Choi at a short moneyline price doesn't interest us nearly as much as taking Choi by KO/TKO at around 2.70.

Put less politely: if we're betting on Doo Ho Choi, we want to be paid for betting on him to fight like Doo Ho Choi.

Pitbull is vastly more experienced and remains dangerous everywhere. He has 12 career knockouts and 12 submissions of his own, so Choi cannot simply march forward without consequences. The Brazilian has also spent his entire career dealing with elite opposition and championship fights.

But the method prop aligns much more closely with Choi's actual history than his moneyline does.

A decision win is possible. A submission isn't impossible. Neither is the reason anyone is backing Choi.

Fourteen of his 17 victories are knockouts. His last three wins are stoppages. If he beats Pitbull, we would rather own the 2.70 KO/TKO ticket than the significantly shorter straight-win price.

MMAtown pick: Doo Ho Choi by KO/TKO at around 2.70.

Our UFC 331 picks ranked by confidence

These are not three equal bets.

Joshua Van at 1.90 is the one we are most comfortable with. We like what he showed against Taira, the pace and technical growth are real, and Pantoja is returning from a significant injury at 36 years old.

Ruffy at 4.00 is almost the opposite. Tsarukyan has the exact skill set that can ruin the bet, but Ruffy's finishing ability gives him a much more realistic path than we think such a large underdog number implies.

Choi by KO/TKO at 2.70 sits somewhere between them. We're not trying to pretend Pitbull is an easy matchup. We simply think the finish prop makes considerably more sense than backing Choi at a short outright price when knockouts account for the overwhelming majority of his wins.

  • Joshua Van to win vs. Alexandre Pantoja — around 1.90
  • Doo Ho Choi by KO/TKO vs. Patricio Pitbull — around 2.70
  • Mauricio Ruffy to win vs. Arman Tsarukyan — around 4.00, smaller stake

UFC 331 main card and event details

UFC 331 takes place Saturday, September 19, 2026 at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, California. The main card begins at 9 p.m. ET / 6 p.m. PT and streams on Paramount+ in the United States.

UFC 331 predictions FAQ

What are MMAtown's UFC 331 predictions?

MMAtown's three selected UFC 331 picks are Joshua Van to beat Alexandre Pantoja at around 1.90, Mauricio Ruffy to upset Arman Tsarukyan at around 4.00 and Doo Ho Choi to beat Patricio Pitbull by KO/TKO at around 2.70.

Who will win Joshua Van vs Alexandre Pantoja 2?

MMAtown is picking Joshua Van. His fifth-round stoppage of Tatsuro Taira showed important development against an elite grappler, while Pantoja is returning from the elbow injury that ended their first fight after only 26 seconds.

What happened in the first Joshua Van vs Alexandre Pantoja fight?

Alexandre Pantoja suffered an elbow injury only 26 seconds into their UFC 323 title fight after posting on the canvas during an exchange. The fight was stopped and Joshua Van became UFC flyweight champion.

Why is MMAtown picking Mauricio Ruffy against Arman Tsarukyan?

Tsarukyan deserves to be favored because his wrestling is a major stylistic threat to Ruffy. The pick is based on price rather than claiming Ruffy is the better all-around fighter. At around 4.00, we believe Ruffy's elite striking and knockout threat give him a better chance than the implied probability suggests.

Has Mauricio Ruffy struggled against wrestlers?

Yes. Ruffy's UFC loss to Benoît Saint Denis exposed problems when he was pressured, taken down and forced into extended grappling exchanges. Saint Denis eventually submitted him by rear-naked choke. That is the biggest concern against Arman Tsarukyan.

Why pick Doo Ho Choi by KO instead of just picking him to win?

Doo Ho Choi has 14 knockout or TKO victories among his 17 professional wins, and each of his last three victories has come by stoppage. MMAtown therefore prefers the roughly 2.70 KO/TKO prop to a much shorter Choi moneyline.

When and where is UFC 331?

UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 takes place September 19, 2026 at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, California.

What time does UFC 331 start?

The UFC 331 main card starts at 9 p.m. ET / 6 p.m. PT. In the United States, the event streams on Paramount+.

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